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In the upcoming games the question about the motivation of the teams will be crucial in my opinion. And the motivation for the already qualified teams is to be in the best possible pot in the upcoming draw.

This draw will be very strange due to the fact that three from the four teams in Pot 1 will be relatively 'not that hard' to cope with. These teams are: Austria and Switzerland (hosts) and Greece (champion). So being in Pot 1 isn't the most wanted thing for the teams because you won't have the chance to get Austria or Greece (with all my respect for those two teams) for a group leader.

So let's take a look of the possible scenarios for the draw. First of all - the rules: there will be four pots with four teams in each pot. We know three from the four teams that will be in Pot 1 - Austria and Switzerland (hosts) and Greece (champion). The other teams are clasified by their rating from qualification campaigns for the last World Cup and the upcoming European championship that is formed by the division of the Points gained by the matches played. In case of a tie only matches from recent EC qualification count in the tiebraker witch is:
1) Coefficient from the most recent qualifying competition
2) Average goal difference
3) Average number of goals scored
4) Average number of away goals scored
5) Drawing of lots

The qulified countries are Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands, Croatia, Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, France and Spain. Only theoretical is the chance England, Portugal, Sweden or Turkey to be out of Euro 2008, because they have relatively easy last games to play on Wednesday. So if we assume that these four countries will qualify, then we can start making the calculations for the upcoming draw.

In the first column is the current situation (before the last matches from the groups). In the following colums we see the rating and the results of the teams from the last two qualification campaigns. After that is the eventual final rating for every team if they take 0, 1 or 3 points from the upcoming game. Note that in bold are the most probable final ratings according to me (for France and the Netherlands matches I can't decide which is the most prpbable outcomes, so their ratings are not in bold). In the last two columns are the probable final pots that are formed by the final ratings of the teams.

Here is another table with the results only from Euro 2008 qualification:


So let's start to think Either the Netherlands or Germany can be in Pot 1. The chance for Germany to be there is if the following happen - the Netherlands lose in Belarus and Germany wins against Wales at home. By this the two countries will have same ratings, but Germany has better rating from the recent EC qualification. In every other case the Netherlands will be in Pot 1.

If the Netherlands don't lose from Belarus, Germany will be motivated to win against Wales because they will want to stay in Pot 2. Italy are sure for Pot 2, because it is impossible for them not to win against Faraoe islands at home. In this case in Pot 2 we will have Italy and Germany. If England wins against Croatia at home they will have better rating than their opponent and will go also to Pot 2. This means that Czech republic must win against Cyprus (away) in order to have beter rating than Croatia and Sweden.

If the Netherlands lose from Belarus then Germany will have to decide whether they want to be in Pot 1 or in Pot 3. If they win, they will be in Pot 1, but if they lose or draw they will be most probably in Pot 3, because they will be left behind by England, Italy, Portugal, Croatia, Sweden, Czech republic. But I think that it is difficult to play for draw or to lose against Wales when playing at home.

So I think that we will have - Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands/Germany; Pot 2: Netherlands/Germany, Italy, England (I do think that England will be very motivated to win against Croatia and the reasons for this are many, not only that they will want to be in Pot 2). The last team to be there depends on the results from the games Cyprus - Czech republic, Sweden - Latvia and England - Croatia. If Czechs beat Cyprus, they will be in Pot 2. If they don't, either Croatia or Sweden will be there (but most probable - Croatia, because if they lose in England and Sweden wins against Latvia at home these two teams will be with equal ratings from the last two campaigns, with equal ratings from this EC campaign, but the current goal difference of Croatia is +19 and the Swedish: +13, so Sweden has to win by 4 goals and Croatia to lose by 3 goals or more).

Again, every team will be motivated to be in Pot 2, because there will be the following: Netherlands/Germany, Italy, England, Czech republic/Croatia.

Of course Croatia will be motivated not to lose from England in order to stay in Pot 2, but I think that it will be very difficult for them to avoid defeat against the 100% motivated and playing also for their pride English players.

Let's take a look in the two left Pots - 3 and 4.

I think that Croatia/Czech republic(it depends on which team will be in Pot 2), Portugal and Sweden are almost sure for Pot 3. For the last place in Pot 3 with chance are Romania, Poland, Spain and France. But if Romania want to be there, they will be there, because if they win against Albania at home they will leave behid Poland (even if they win in Serbia, which I doubt) because they have better rating from the current EC qualification. And I think that Romania will want to be there, because if they stay in Pot 4, in Pot 3 will be Poland, France or Spain. I don't think that Poland are capable of winning against Serbia away from home (that's my oppinion of course). This means that either France or Spain will move to Pot 3 (if they win of course, but Spain have an easy game against Northern Ireland at home). So the choice for Romania is - Pot 3 with: Croatia/Czech republic, Portugal and Sweden or Pot 4 with Poland, France/Spain and Turkey. I believe that Pot 3 is the better option and as I said before it is not that easy to make these calculations in front of your own fans.

So the final Pots according to me will be: Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands; Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, Czech republic; Pot 3: Croatia, Portugal, Sweden, Romania; Pot 4: Poland, Spain, France, Turkey.

Conclusions based on motivation of the teams:
1. The Netherlands may want to lose from Belarus in order to be in most wanted Pot 2
2. England will want to win against Croatia (and of course Croatia will want draw at least) in order England (or Croatia) to be in Pot 2
3. Italy will be motivated to win agaist Faraoe (actually that doesn't matter, because they will win anyway) to stay in Pot 2.
4. Czech republic will be motivated to win against Cyprus away from home in order to stay in Pot 2
5. Sweden and Portugal will also be motivated to win their games not only because they are not 100% qualified for Euro 2008, but also because they have slight chance to be in Pot 2. Actually only theoretical according to me, but the important here is that they don't win anything if they draw for example. Only Sweden may be in Pot 4 if they draw, but I am don't think that they will want to be in Pot 4 and of course this scenario may be risky for them. They also play in front of their fans.
6.Romania will be motivated to win against Albania in order to stay in Pot 3
7. Spain won't lose anything if they win agaist Northern Ireland at home.


And in addition I want to say that the seeding in the draw for the World Cup 2010 qualifications in Europe will be based on the Fifa World Rankings and not the last two qualifications in Europe (like it was untill now).

The situation before the last games is very interesting, so oppinions are welcome

Personally I see value in the odds for AW in the game Cyprus - Czech Republic - 1.90 currently at Betfair. HW for England, Sweden, Portugal, Romania and Spain can be used for some good combos.