In this game, I pick Greece. Some people might consider them a "biased" pick, but it's definately not such. Despite being considered to be traditionally "owned" in quality and playing-style terms by Lithuania, I expect the reigning european champions to register their second win in the WC. Actually, it's hard for me to counter Sabonis' kids, as I rate them very highly. Still, some facts point to Greek's win, in my opinion: I have always seen Jasikevicius and Siskauskas as the most influential players in this generation. Needless to speak about their big value, their contribution in their teams, their whole presence. But now, Saras and Siska are absentees, and Lithuania are much weakened without their leader and their key player. Gustas is a good player, and Kalnietis is an fantastic prospect, but Jasikevicius' miss is too big to be handled, and Lithuanians had problems vs Turkey in the playmaker's position and many times they didn't set up their attack in a proper way, the last play of the game included. Macijauskas, Jasaitis, are brilliant players from the big school, very dangerous offensivelly, but there's missing the multidimensional game of versatile Siskauskas, whose late decision not to travel in Japan is reported to have caused a great mess in Sireika's plans.
This weakness in backcourt will probably be the point where Greece will hit. They can employ huge press on playmakers of Lithuania, while Yannakis has 3-4 very good defenders to assign on Macijauskas. Lithuania will probably win the battle inside, with Lavrinovic bros, Kleiza and Javtokas, still they won't have an easy task as last time those teams had met, as Papadopoulos and Dikoudis look in good form, while Shortsanitis was protected yesterday, in order to be fit for the next game, and his presence might be crucial (Lavrinovic had a bad night when they met in EL).
Lithuania are desperate for the win, according to Maci's statement, and they will probably show up much more determined than in the first game. Greeks won't be able to drive inside as much as they did with Qatar, in order to overcome their awful percentage in shooting, however, they have the ability to take the game in a slow tempo, and hold a slight advantage for the biggest part of the game. As mentioned above, I consider greek superiority in guards as very important, and Lithuania isn't Qatar, but still the pressure they will face there, might prove too much for them. Greeks are closer to the win, in my opinion, and the line is satisfactory.
Pick: H, Odds: 1.90, Stake: 5
